Is Iran on the Brink of History?

June 17, 2009 - For the past week the world has witnessed some of the worst social unrest in Iran in three decades. Reminiscent of 1979 when student-led demonstrations called for the ouster of the US-backed Shah, Iran’s urban centres are again battlefields on which young Iranians risk their lives to fight against perceived injustice and oppression. Millions of young, progressive-minded Iranians who desire simple freedoms you and I take for granted and whom yearn for better relations with the West march through city streets in unison hoping that their voices will be heard and their votes (finally) be counted. In speaking out against what appears to be one of the greatest cases of electoral fraud in human history, some brave souls have paid the ultimate price. People are not surprised that incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won re-election – the President, in fact, is hugely popular among the working class, many of whom have benefited from his populist policies – it’s the 2:1 margin by which he won that’s startling them. How could this be? The unanimous consensus before the election was that a record voter turnout would favour Ahmadinejad’s opponent, Mir-Hussein Mousavi, whose campaign sought to reinvigorate millions of disenfranchised, unemployed youth loitering in Iran’s streets into believing that better times lay ahead.

The reality is that the outcome of this election would have changed very little irrespective of who had won. As the world’s only theocratic state, Iran’s unelected 12-member Guardian Council has final say on all state matters, rendering the President’s role largely symbolic. And, despite the tremendous show of support for Ahmadinejad’s rival, Mousavi isn’t exactly Iran’s Barack Obama. He is a product of the Iranian revolution; he served as the country’s Prime Minister in the 80s when the newly declared Islamic Republic was still forging its identity. By many accounts, he personally sent to death hundreds of political opponents. No, Mousavi would not bring about any substantial change to Iran not only because he is powerless, but because doing so would be to challenge the very system that brought him all his success. I can’t see Mousavi living with that sort of cognitive dissonance.

So what happened?

It appears to me that the Guardian Council made the most rudimentary of election tampering errors – if you’re going to defraud millions of their vote, make sure the results at least slightly mirror the polls! Though I believe that the same protesters now on the streets would have nevertheless been disappointed had Ahmadinejad won in a closer contest, I doubt that the magnitude of their anger would equal that we’re witnessing today. It’s not so much that Iranians cannot believe that Mousavi lost, it’s that they genuinely feel cheated by the religious institution that none of them have dared to question up until now. So what happens now – will this latest revolution bring about the social and political change the world yearns for? The parallels between 2009 and 1979 are outstanding... are we, again, on the brink of history?

Call me the pessimist, but I doubt it.

The difference between the clerics who control Iran today and Reza Shah 30 years ago is that today’s leaders are far more entrenched, better prepared and willing to utilize force to maintain their stranglehold on power. Not only do the mullahs have the backing of a significant number of Iranians who are deeply religious, they more importantly control the military apparatuses that keep them in power, and remain fiercely loyal to their rule. As long as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and Baseej Militia – forces virtually immune to prosecution – remain the vessels by which the Guardian Council does its bidding, very little will change in Iran. As I write headlines are being made around the world by the Guardian Council’s leader Ali Khameini who declared earlier today that tomorrow’s protests would be met with bloodshed.

I don’t mean to underestimate or demean the resolve of my compatriots. I sincerely wish they could attain the freedoms they seek. But I’m also a realist. The mullahs who rule Iran will do anything to stay in power. The last time the world witnessed unarmed civilians rallying en masse against an autocratic, militant regime, thousands of innocent individuals lost their lives on a balmy evening in Beijing. Could Tehran’s Azadi Square be next? The world prays not.

Long live Iran.